Crime is such a prominent topic because feeling safe is at the core of the ability to have a happy, productive life. It’s no wonder then, that when we travel to or even just consider a new place, the conversation around crime comes up. What I find interesting, however, is how we perceive the levels of crime in a place versus the actual lived experience of being in that place. 

During my “Latin American adventure”, I spent time in both Medellín, Colombia and Quito, Ecuador. Medellín had a bad reputation from its history of the narco reign of terror of Pablo Escobar. Quito, however, wasn’t on the radar for being particularly unsafe. Yet, when I spoke to locals, I was struck by how fearful many of them seemed to be, and how they would warn me. They made me feel much more on high alert than I had felt in Medellín. And so I wondered: what was the crime reality of both places? How are crime perceptions born and shaped? I decided to consider my experiences and look into some data to try to figure this out.

A Crime Tale of Two Cities

Act I – Medellín

On a bright, beautiful weekday afternoon I decided to leave my airbnb and take a long lunch and venture to the Laureles neighborhood to check out a restaurant I had been wanting to try. The restaurant was situated on a corner and had tons of outside seating both between the sidewalk and street and the sidewalk and the building. I remember the deep blue of the sky, and the colorful little flags hanging above the seating area to decorate the restaurant.

The neighborhood was more like a neighborhood than the area where I was staying in Poblado, the area renowned for tourists. I could see many locals walking around who were clearly on their lunch break. I took a seat close to the building, situated nicely so that I could be out of the way but still people-watch the corner as I enjoyed my meal. 

When I arrived, the outside area was pretty empty. But by the time my food came out, more parties had begun sitting. One of which consisted of two women who looked like they were on their lunch break. I think I remember seeing ID lanyards hanging from their purses. They chose a table right on the corner on the street side. One woman sat her purse on the table and they both laughed and chatted, waiting to be attended. 

I was eating my food at this point, when a jolt ran through me as one of the women jumped up and started screaming. “AHHH! ME ROBÓ! ME ROBÓ!”, she yelled. That translates to “He robbed me!” As she was yelling this, I could see a motorcyclist turning the corner and riding away, while some men who had been standing around the neighborhood ran after the cyclist. What had happened is that the cyclist had ridden his bike down the street very close to the curb, grabbed the woman’s purse off the table as he turned the corner, and sped away.

I was surprised that I had witnessed that, in broad daylight, during a pleasant lunch outing. But on the other hand, all the Colombians that I had met always told me “no dar papaya”. It’s a saying they have that basically means, don’t make it easy for someone to rob you or take advantage of you. That woman’s purse sitting right on top of the table on a street corner was definitely giving papaya.

Oddly enough, that incident did not make me feel unsafe. It really didn’t affect my behavior at all, as I was already being mindful and being cautious. I continued to go out to cafes with my laptop so that I could get out of the house to do work. When I desired, I went out dancing, but was sure not to walk around alone at night. I carried on and enjoyed my time in the city without incident.

Act II – Quito

Let me start off by saying that I did not witness any crimes in Quito! But, the very first full day that I arrived, a candidate running for president was shot and killed while leaving a campaign rally in El Centro. I recall my mom calling me, worried, telling me I should consider leaving. I remember wondering if I should leave. What would the city be like? Would there be unrest? The next day I had a food tour, and I recall the guide explaining to me that things like that don’t really happen. That the local Quiteños were a bit stunned and shell-shocked. 

The country had been changing, the people told me. Narcotraffickers had expanded their trade routes there, and this shift made the country much different and more dangerous. As I settled into life in Quito, I met locals through the Spanish school I attended and through salsa lessons. Many people told me to be careful. They told me that I should never go out to cafes with my laptop to work. They told me to try to patronize establishments that had security posted outside.

All the warnings and fear that oozed from the people I spoke with put me on edge a bit. I never did work outside of my apartment. I kept my head on a swivel and was mindful, “no dar papaya”. And I think the fear and anxiety of the locals I spoke with seeped into me and colored my experience. But was this warranted? Was Quito more dangerous than Medellín?

Medellin & Quito Crime by the Numbers

I collected crime data for the two cities from 2015 through 2021. First, let me say that there is no apples to apples comparison here. The way that the cities report crime is very different. For example, I was able to find datasets for Quito robberies and burglaries. However, I was only able to find residential and commercial theft datasets for Medellín. It’s a subtle difference, but robberies imply the presence of a victim, often by force. The other types of theft can be more passive. In Quito I was able to find a dataset for assault, but not murder; but it was the opposite for Medellín.

Still, if we lump similar crimes together, such as all types of theft, and just compare the numbers side by side, we see that Quito does have a higher crime rate than Medellín. Below we see time series data for the number of thefts per 100K persons. It’s averaged on a three year basis to smooth out the numbers. We see that although the crime rate moves towards convergence in 2021, there are many more for Quito across the years than Medellín. Also theft was steadily decreasing in Quito before the pandemic, whereas theft increased and flattened in Medellín prior to the pandemic. We must however keep in mind the different definitions discussed earlier that make up these theft numbers.

Assault and Homicide are very different crimes, but if we look below we see that Quito also had more assaults than Medellín had homicides in 2021. Because assault rates are usually always higher than homicide rates in any city, this is not a conclusive comparison. But it’s just something to take note of as we think about crime in the two cities.

One interesting thing here is which crimes each nation chooses to collect data on, and what they choose to publish. Colombia has homicide numbers by city, perhaps because of its past of narcotrafficking and violence. Ecuador does not report these numbers at this level. Quito instead reports assault and robbery. These are metrics that directly influence how safe a person may feel in their everyday life.

Perceptions of Crime and Feelings of Safety

Honestly, I didn’t believe that Quito would actually have more crime than Medellín. I had, after all, witnessed a crime on the streets of Medellín. Plus the city’s reputation/legacy had preceded it. Although Quiteños seemed much more on edge about crime in their city, because I had not heard anything negative, it was a little hard to wrap my mind around this reality.

Quiteños perceived their city to be dangerous, but that narrative hadn’t reached foreigners/travelers like myself. So why then are some cities paraded across the news as uber dangerous? Or discussed in everyday discourse as if you can’t walk up the block without being shot or stabbed? Meanwhile other places with actual worse crime rates are handled more gently? 

I grew up in Chicago, and I get tired of hearing people call it Chiraq. As if it’s some scary war zone. I believe it’s one of the most beautiful, dynamic cities in the world. However, this is the narrative that gets pushed. This is the perception that people hold and that we have to contend with. Maybe it’s just too hard to shake the image of a dangerous place once that idea reaches the masses.

Maybe the rates at which crime rises and falls is the catalyst that spurs extra attention or high alarm and panic. I couldn’t find homicide data for Quito specifically. But it’s clear that the country as a whole faced some drastic changes in terms of violence. I visited in 2023 and so the chart below sheds light on why Ecuadorians I met seemed to be on high alert.

What I do know is this: sometimes our perceptions and even our actual experiences don’t line up with the overall context of a situation. I could have easily told everyone that Medellín is way more dangerous than Quito, based on the fact that I witnessed a robbery there. But that doesn’t seem to line up with the numbers. 

Speaking of numbers, the other thing that I know, which is made very evident through this analysis: we have to be careful when we’re making conclusions based on some crime statistic we heard. Understanding exactly what we’re measuring, in which units, and during what time period is imperative. We wanted to know which of these two cities was more dangerous. But thefts in Medellín’s dataset do not include robberies, as opposed to those in Quito. This has a big impact on how we understand bodily safety. We have to be aware of what’s in the data. We have to clearly communicate that. And we have to understand the implications of that. When we do those things, we move our stories closer to truth.

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Sources

• https://data.humdata.org/dataset/ecuador-robbery-crime-in-quito-by-ecu911
• https://data.humdata.org/dataset/ecuador-burglary-crime-in-quito
• https://data.humdata.org/dataset/ecuador-assault-crime-in-quito
• https://www.datos.gov.co/Seguridad-y-Defensa/HOMICIDIO/m8fd-ahd9/about_data
• https://www.datos.gov.co/Seguridad-y-Defensa/Reporte-Hurto-a-Residencias-y-Entidades-Comerciale/wxmd-5byh/about_data