When I was in college, I read a book called There Are No Children Here. It followed the story of two brothers growing up in the projects on Chicago’s west side in the early ’90s. These kids endured unimaginable conditions. They saw friends get killed, dodged bullets, lived in constant fear, dealt with crackheads, and scraped by to survive in a dangerous and traumatic environment. I remember feeling so sad and angry that anyone had to live like that.
I remember feeling that way, even though drugs and gun violence speckled my childhood as well. Which was the case in many Black American neighborhoods of the time. But I had not lived in constant fear. My Chicago had not been that. And yet, people repeatedly frame Chicago as one of the most dangerous places in America. So let’s dig into it. What is the crime reality in the city of Chicago? What was that reality in the past and how has it changed? Is Chicago the “hellhole” that it’s been painted as?
Chicago Crime Perception vs Reality
In a previous post, I talked about how we perceive crime and safety versus what the data tells us. I used Colombia and Ecuador as a case study. In my very first post I talked about my memories growing up in my majority-black neighborhood, which were nostalgic and pleasant. But also tinged with an awareness of the dangers and crime that many black neighborhoods of the time grappled with.
I love my city. It is not without its challenges. But I don’t think it’s warranted to call Chicago amongst the most dangerous places in America. Nor do I believe that it needs federal policing. I believe that old narratives, such as the one told in There Are No Children Here, skew reality by being extrapolated as truth for the whole. And that once a place’s reputation is tainted, it’s hard to shake that stain.
Chicago Crime by Place
I looked at violent crime data from 1991 to the present in Chicago. The map below shows the crime counts by zip code. We can see that over time, the areas of the city with the highest crime levels stay pretty consistent. This is namely parts of the west and south sides. To know Chicago is to know that these areas are majority Black. I mention this only to suggest that the issue of violent crime in Chicago is linked to the disinvestment, disenfranchisement, and lack of resources that characterize so many Black urban neighborhoods. Also to point out that people who do not live in these neighborhoods will experience a much different Chicago.
Therefore, a perpetuation of fear of the city for most people is unwarranted.
You can also filter on type of crime using the incident drop down
Chicago Crime Trend
So we see that violent crime is more of an issue in certain parts of the city. But what’s going on with crime trends in general? The charts below show crime counts by type from 2001 to present. A note on crime types:
- Theft includes the categories of theft, motor vehicle theft, and burglary
- Physical crime includes the categories of battery, assault, and domestic violence
- Sexual crime includes the categories of sex offense and criminal sexual assault
Above we see a clear downward trend since 2001 for all crimes except homicide and sexual crimes. For homicides, we see two large spikes in 2017 and 2021. And we see a decline since 2022, in line with what the governor has been saying.
I think the most interesting thing about this panel is the large increase in sexual crimes since 2015 — an increase of over 1500 crimes (140%)! There could be technical reasons for this increase, such as changing definitions of sexual crime or higher reporting rates. But the idea of this high boom for this type of crime, I think, is where the conversation needs to go.
Where We Should Shift Some Attention
With all of Trump’s talk about deploying the National Guard to cities like Chicago, there’s been a lot of reporting on crime trends in US cities. One such article had an interesting visual that I think highlights the issue of sexual crime being something that we need to have a conversation around. Sections in yellow indicate an increase in crime rate. Blue indicates a decrease. Homicide rates have dropped by more than 10% for 12 out of 16 cities, including Chicago, which is great. But we see that for seven out of sixteen cities the rate of rape has increased by more than 20%! For San Francisco it was 59%! This is a statistic that we really need to shift some attention toward understanding.
Violent Crime: Let’s Shift the Conversation
Long story short, crime in general has been on a steady decline in Chicago since 2001. Homicide in particular has been on decline for the last four years, in Chicago and many other American cities. Chicago continues to be framed as one of the most crime-riddled places in the nation. However, the data show that this just isn’t true. If you want to see a comparison of Chicago crime rates against other cities for the period of 2010 to 2015, check out this visualization story that I created some time ago.
However, it’s obvious from Chicago’s own data as well the source used in this AP article, that there’s something happening with sexual crimes. It seems like it’s time to worry less about deploying federal police because of homicides, and think more about why sexual crimes appear to be spiking.
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Sources
https://apnews.com/article/trump-national-guard-crime-stats-92ee575c0d445320aa633f6abe2a26b9
https://data.cityofchicago.org/Public-Safety/Crimes-2001-to-Present/ijzp-q8t2/about_data
